Existing-home sales are projected to rise by around 14 percent in 2026, according to National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Yun earlier this month delivered his 2026 housing outlook during the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum at NAR NXT, The Realtor Experience in Houston.

He said he expects sales to increase due to falling mortgage rates, continued job gains and improving market stability after several challenging years.

Home sales are expected to remain flat this year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Home prices are forecast to increase by 4 percent next year, supported by steady demand and persistent supply shortages.

“Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” Yun said. “Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining.”

Mortgage rates are projected to decline modestly, averaging around 6 percent in 2026. Yun emphasized that while rates are influenced by more than Federal Reserve decisions alone, broader economic factors are contributing to gradually lower borrowing costs.

“As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better,” said Yun. “It’s not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability.”

The path to increased sales next year, however, won’t look the same across the market, as today’s housing market remains deeply uneven, he said.

“The upper end of the market has been doing much better than the lower end,” Yun said, with robust inventory and strong financial markets fueling activity.

Sales in the $750,000 to $1 million price range have seen some of the largest gains. Meanwhile, inventory remains constrained at lower price points.

Buyers will see the greatest affordability improvements in regions in which new housing supply is most robust, particularly high-construction markets such as Houston, Yun said. He said expanding inventory in such areas will help more first-time buyers achieve homeownership.

“Houston is creating more home construction, and therefore making home prices much more reasonable,” said Yun. “Given the job creation, buyers will inevitably be showing up to Houston once the mortgage rate goes down.”

Central Ohio home sales, meanwhile, are up 2.9 percent so far this year, according to Columbus Realtors. Home sales rose 9.5 percent in October compared to October 2024.

The average sales price for a home sold in the region this year is $377,121, which is 3 percent higher than a year ago.

Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, presented insights from the newly released “2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers,” highlighting how shifting demographics are reshaping today’s housing market.

Lautz noted that the typical age of a home buyer today is 59 and the typical age of a repeat buyer is 62. She also shared that the number one reason people move today is because they want to be closer to friends and family.

“I call this the grandbaby effect,” Lautz said. “This is a different type of buyer.”

In contrast, first-time buyers continue to face steep challenges, she said, with the share of first-time buyers hitting an all-time low of 21 percent and the median first-time buyer age reaching 40.

“The biggest struggle first-time buyers have is finding an affordable property, and many of them struggle to save for a down payment,” said Lautz.