The average rate on a 30-year mortgage ended a three-week streak of increases, reflecting a pullback in long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields.
The average long-term mortgage rate last week fell to 6.23 percent from 6.26 percent the previous week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.81 percent.
Five weeks ago, the average rate was at 6.17 percent, its lowest level in more than a year.
Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, also declined last week. The rate averaged 5.51 percent, down from 5.54 percent the previous week. A year ago, it was 6.10 percent, Freddie Mac said.
Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decisions to bond market investors’ expectations for the economy and inflation.
They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
The 10-year yield was at 4.01 percent at midday Wednesday. That’s down from about 4.13 percent a week earlier.
When mortgage rates ease, the purchasing power of boost homebuyers gets a boost.
Easing mortgage rates this fall helped lift sales of previously occupied homes in October on an annual basis for the fourth straight month.
Still, affordability remains a challenge for many aspiring homeowners after years of skyrocketing prices. Uncertainty over the economy and job market are also keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines.
That’s helped keep sales of previously occupied homes stuck at around a 4-million annual pace going back to 2023. Historically, sales have typically hovered around 5.2 million a year.
Mortgage rates began declining in the summer ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision in September to cut its main interest rate for the first time in a year amid signs the labor market was slowing. The Fed lowered its key interest rate again last month, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that further rate cuts weren’t guaranteed.
Still, comments from Fed officials have fueled speculation that the central bank will again cut interest rates at its meeting later this month. Wall Street traders are betting on a nearly 83 percent probability that the Fed will cut next month, according to data from CME Group.
“It is looking increasingly likely that the Fed will cut interest rates when it meets on Dec. 10,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “However, we should not expect that to translate into a big drop in mortgage rates.”
Recent forecasts by economists at the National Association of Realtors and First American call for the average rate on a 30-year mortgage to drop to around 6 percent next year.
